While many people think Mitt Romney has this nomination wrapped up, I would like to propose the opposite. In fact, I think Newt Gingrich has quite a good chance of winning the nomination. I would not say he is the front runner, but there is a pretty easy path for him to follow.
The reason the primary can go on for a while, Newt remains a contender, is because of a change in the rules to the Republican nominating process. Many states are apportioned proportionally, while some states are winner-take-all. You can see the different types here. Additionally, Strong Republican States (such as the South) get more delegates.
So how does this help Newt?
First, Newt is going to do well in the South – which is a strong Republican area. Most have Republican state legislatures, Republican governors, and Republican Congressional delegations. Each of these award more delegates to these states. In contrast, Romney does will in the North East, which are smaller states with a lower number of delegates based on the allocation plan. Based simply on the Republican rules, the states Newt plays well in are the states that are more heavily weighted for the nomination.
Second, the proportional states allow the Republican nomination to go on longer. While Romney may beat Newt in some states, Newt’s strong showing can keep him in the race by getting delegates from those states. In 2008, all states were winner takes all (to the best of my knowledge).
Third, the Winner-take-All (WTA) states favor Newt. Newt won South Carolina, the first winner-take-all state. This let him erase his bad performance in Iowa and New Hampshire. Florida is WTA, but it lost half of its delegates due to the moving of its primary. Texas, which has 155 delegates, can become WTA if a candidate gets a high enough percentage of the vote or if the State party changes the rules (which seems to be being discussed). Romney only has one state that is WTA and is large – California. However, that primary is June 5th, and many things can happen between now and then.
Finally, Ron Paul really makes the race interesting. He may not win – but he will likely keep enough delegates to keep either Romney or Newt from reaching the delegate goal. As long as this is the case, this battle could keep going until the convention. If there is no clear winner, the convention could be very interesting. I’m hoping for this.
I have always felt that Newt Gingrich was the only candidate with the competence, intelligence and overall “right stuff” to win the nomination. I felt Romney works too hard at trying to get people to believe him. Santorum is very inexperienced and acts too much like a spoiled, angry child and you can always count on Ron Paul for comic relief. Newt is my pick for best candidate!